How Many Smalls vs. XLs Should I Order? A Complete Sizing Guide

Dec 9, 2025 | T-Shirts

Placing a bulk order for custom t-shirts, polos, or jackets is an exciting step in planning your event, outfitting your team, or creating promotional giveaways. You have perfected the design and chosen the ideal garment. Now you face the most daunting question of the entire process: What sizes do I order, and how many of each?

It’s a common dilemma that can cause a lot of stress. Order too many of the wrong size, and you are left with a box of useless, expensive inventory. Order too few of a popular size, and you risk disappointing employees, clients, or event attendees.

Guessing is not a strategy. The good news is that you do not have to. With Rivercity’s experience of outfitting groups of all shapes and sizes, we have developed a data-driven approach that takes the guesswork out of placing your order.

Try to Collect Sizes Directly!

Before we get into formulas, the absolute best and most accurate method is to ask your recipients for their sizes ahead of time. For an internal team or a pre-registered event, creating a simple online form or spreadsheet is a foolproof way to get a perfect count.

However, we know this is not always possible. For large public events, promotional giveaways, or situations where you need inventory on hand, you need a reliable estimation model.

The Bell Curve: An Industry-Standard Sizing Formula

When you cannot collect individual sizes, the most effective approach is to base your order on a standard size distribution model, often referred to as a “bell curve.” This model reflects the typical size breakdown of the general population.

For a standard, unisex-fit garment like a classic t-shirt or hoodie, a great starting point for a 100-piece order is the 10-25-30-25-10 Rule:

  • Small (S): 10% (10 shirts)
  • Medium (M): 25% (25 shirts)
  • Large (L): 30% (30 shirts)
  • Extra Large (XL): 25% (25 shirts)
  • 2XL and larger: 10% (10 shirts, which you can split between 2XL and 3XL if needed)

This ratio provides a balanced inventory that covers the most popular sizes (Medium and Large) while still providing adequate stock of the sizes on either end of the spectrum.

Critical Factors That Can Adjust Your Formula

The bell curve is a fantastic starting point, but it’s not one-size-fits-all. A smart order requires you to consider a few key variables that can shift your numbers.

Garment Fit and Style

The style of garment is an integral factor.

  • Unisex/Standard Fit: The bell curve model works best for these classic, boxier t-shirts and hoodies.
  • “Fashion” or “Athletic” Fit: These styles are more tailored and run smaller than standard fits. When ordering these, it is wise to shift your numbers up. Order fewer Smalls and more XLs and 2XLs, as many people will need to size up for a comfortable fit.
  • Women’s-Specific Cuts: A “women’s cut” is not the same as a unisex small. These garments are shaped differently, often with a tapered waist and shorter sleeves. They tend to run significantly smaller than their unisex counterparts. If ordering women’s specific apparel, always advise recipients to check the size chart and consider sizing up.

Your Audience Demographics

Who’ll be wearing the apparel? The answer can dramatically change your size breakdown.

  • University Students or a Younger Audience: You’ll likely need to shift your curve toward smaller sizes, ordering more Smalls and Mediums.
  • Corporate Office or General Public Event: The standard bell curve is a very safe bet.
  • Construction or Manual Labor Industry: You may want to shift your curve toward larger sizes, increasing your quantities of Large, XL, and 2XL.

The Golden Rule: Always Order a Buffer and Plan for Leftovers

No matter how well you plan, it’s always a good idea to order a few extras. We recommend adding a 5-10% buffer to your total quantity. This small overage can be a lifesaver, covering any miscounts, last-minute event additions, or allowing you to exchange a shirt for a different size on the spot.

However, despite the best planning, leftover inventory happens. Having a plan minimizes waste:

  1. Future New Hires: Extra employee apparel serves onboarding needs. New team members appreciate receiving company apparel immediately rather than waiting for the next order cycle.
  2. Promotional Giveaways: Leftover event shirts become future promotional items, trade show giveaways, or customer appreciation gifts.
  3. Donation Options: Quality branded apparel can be donated to charitable organizations. This creates goodwill while clearing storage space.
  4. Reorder Planning: Track which sizes sold out quickly versus which remained. This data improves future order distributions for the same audience.

FAQs

What is the most common size breakdown for a 100-shirt order?

For a standard unisex t-shirt order where you cannot collect individual sizes, the safest and most common breakdown is: 10 Small, 25 Medium, 30 Large, 25 Extra-Large, and 10 2XL. This “bell curve” distribution is a proven industry standard.

How should I adjust my order for women’s sizes?

If you are ordering fitted women’s apparel, you must anticipate that people will need to size up. A person who wears a unisex Medium will often need a women’s Large or even XL. If you are ordering for a mixed-gender group, a good strategy is to order a majority of unisex styles and a smaller run of women’s cuts for those who prefer a more tailored fit. Always communicate that the women’s styles are “fitted” and run small.

Is it better to have too many big sizes or too many small sizes?

It’s almost always better to have too many large sizes. A person who normally wears a Medium can comfortably wear a Large as a casual, oversized shirt. However, a person who needs an Extra-Large cannot wear a Medium. Larger sizes offer more versatility for leftovers.

What should I do with the leftover shirts?

Leftover shirts are a great asset! Use them for new employee welcome kits, prizes for internal raffles or contests, social media giveaways, or simply keep them on hand for future needs. Having a small inventory is always a good thing.

How do I handle sizing for events where I don’t know who’s attending?

For open events without pre-registration, rely on standard distribution formulas adjusted for expected audience demographics. Consider offering size selection at registration or check-in, then distributing from available inventory. Accept that some sizes may run out while others remain. Ordering slightly more middle sizes provides the best chance of satisfying the most attendees. For recurring events, track which sizes depleted first to improve future ordering.

What’s the best way to collect sizes from a large group of employees?

Create a simple online form or spreadsheet where employees select their size from the specific garment’s size chart. Include the actual size chart with measurements rather than just size names, since sizes vary between brands. Set a firm deadline for submissions and communicate that late responders receive from remaining inventory. Send reminders before the deadline. This approach eliminates guessing and ensures every employee receives their preferred size while maintaining order efficiency.

Order with Confidence, Not Guesswork

Size distribution decisions directly impact your custom apparel program success. Getting it right means recipients are happy; budgets stay intact, and leftover inventory stays minimal. Getting it wrong means wasted money on unworn shirts and disappointed people who couldn’t find their size.

Partnering with an experienced apparel decorator is your best asset in this process. The experts at RCSE can provide guidance not only on your design but also on the specific fit of each garment, helping you build the perfect size breakdown for your project.